Interpretation

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The elaboration of a weather forecast is no easy task. It is quite obvious that the atmosphere is highly complex place, a space lacking in linear behavior. The latest technological advances allow the achievement of higher levels of precision and accuracy in weather forecasting. But counting with the best technology for the gathering of information, the most accurate computer models and the most powerful supercomputers, would be almost useless if human knowledge and experience would not do the interpretation of their output, translating it into useful information for all of us, the general public. The forecaster is crucial in the process of interpreting what applied technology offers as raw data. Verification is the following step, and not less important. Evaluating the accuracy of the forecast through the process of verification allows to make adjustments, if necessary, to learn from mistakes and to enlarge the forecaster expertise. When it comes to dangerous weather, forecasters have a main role in saving lives, as they warn people about severe and hazardous weather conditions, under the form of bulletins, advisories, watches and warnings. Usually, a complete weather forecast includes information about: temperature, heat index, humidity, precipitation, wind, wind chill, fronts, cloud coverage, Highs and Lows.

Forecast elaboration process

The elaboration of a weather forecast is no easy task. It is quite obvious that the atmosphere is a highly complex place, a space lacking in linear behavior. Forecast elaboration process: Weather [...]

A bit of history...

The bases for modern weather prediction were founded by the scientists from late 1600s into the 1800s. Among others, Newton and Boyle announced the basic rules that control the expansion [...]

Supercomputers

Practically every country in the world has its own national weather service, but not many have full-blown global weather models, focused at a single location where supercomputers are present. Supercomputers [...]

Basic forecasted elements

Temperature: the quantity measured by a thermometer, expressed in degrees, Celsius, Kelvin or Fahrenheit, according to the scale. In a weather forecast, low and high temperatures are indicated. In a [...]

Short and Long Range forecasts

There is a spectrum of outlooks that extend from one or two hours to a year or more ahead. The most common types are: nowcasts, short, medium and long-range forecasts. Nowcasts [...]

Chaos Theory and Butterfly Effect

Edward Norton Lorenz, an American pioneer in the chaos theory says that every improvement in the understanding and processing of meteorological data can make weather forecast more accurate, but only [...]

Dangerous weather

One of the main responsibilities of the National Weather Services around the world is to warn the public about hazardous weather conditions, such as floods, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, snow and [...]